论提高灭火救援组织指挥能力

建设科学合理、准确高效的灭火救援作战组织指挥体系,能提高消防部队的组织指挥的能力,以最快、最有效的方法处置各类事故,真正做到＂拉得出、冲得上、打得赢＂。阐述了建立灭火救援作战组织指挥体系的基本要求,提出了提高灭火救援指挥员指挥水平的对策。     

金属磁记忆信号表征铁磁材料变形的基础研究

为探索利用金属磁记忆技术进行再制造毛坯质量控制的方式方法,制作了18CrNiWA钢退火处理和调质处理的板状静载拉伸试件,在MTS810型液压饲服试验机上进行了拉伸试验,采用EMS2003金属磁记忆仪检测拉伸过程试件表面磁记忆信号变化,并利用OLYMPUSGX51观察了2种热处理状态的金相组织。研究结果表明:轴向拉伸载荷诱发试件产生磁有序状态,磁信号曲线在弹性和塑性变形阶段内呈现不同分布特征,磁曲线斜率Ks可以表征拉应力导致的变形程度;2种试件微观组织不同导致拉伸过程中呈现不同的力磁效应。     

基于阶次小波包与粗糙集的轴承故障诊断

针对齿轮箱启动过程中振动信号表现为非平稳、非高斯特征及传统诊断方法诊断精度不高的现状,将阶次小波包和粗糙集理论引入轴承的故障诊断中,提出了一种新的故障诊断方法。首先利用阶次跟踪算法对瞬态振动信号进行重采样,得到等角度分布振动信号,其次采用小波包对该信号分解—重构,并对每个频段的能量进行归一化,构成特征向量,通过粗糙集理论得到清晰、简明的决策规则,最后通过故障实例验证该方法的有效性。     

基于正交试验的大型降落伞开伞冲击载荷影响因素分析

对大型伞开伞过程冲击载荷的影响因素灵敏度进行研究.采用充气时间法对降落伞的充气过程进行建模,并运用正交试验设计方法设计了数值试验来分析初始条件、回收物参数、减速伞参数、主伞参数和环境条件等21个影响因素对主伞和减速伞的2次开伞力峰值、主伞开伞时刻动压等5个指标的影响及灵敏度.通过对比4组不同初始条件的数值试验结果,提出了影响减速伞和主伞开伞冲击载荷的主要因素,并具体分析了各个因素的影响方式.     

The FARC’s militaristic blueprint

This article intends to explain the outstanding sequence of success and failure exhibited by the FARC, the main Colombian guerrilla since the 1980s. It claims that such sequence is unintelligible unless the adoption by the FARC of a militaristic organizational blueprint at its 1982 7^th Conference is taken into account. By building itself like an army, the FARC could boost its combat capacity, maintain its structural integrity, and develop powerful mechanisms that held the whole structure together. At the same time, the militarization of the FARC also entailed significant risks and costs like political isolation and high personnel turnover. After describing the militaristic blueprint, the article compares the FARC with other irregular forces that operated in the Colombian context – a comparison which is important to understand the specificity of the FARC trajectory, as well as the benefits and costs involved in it. The analysis highlights the critical role of organizational dimensions in the explanation of civil war outcomes, and suggests that at least for some problems organizational dynamics should be observed at a low level of granularity.     

商业建筑火灾荷载调查和统计分析

火灾荷载是判断建筑室内火灾危险程度的依据，也是性能化防火设计中设计火灾的重要内容。调查了在廊坊、长治、郑州及天津四个城市的零售类商业店铺火灾荷载情况，调查的对象包括快餐店、服装店、鞋店等商业零售店铺。针对这些店铺常见的可燃物形式，确定了5种可燃物，分析它们在总火灾荷栽中的比重。共计调查了117家商业店铺，总面积4095m^2，面积最小为2．5m^2，最大为185m^2。这117家店铺的火灾荷载密度与样本数之间具有对数正态分布，调查得到的所有店铺火灾荷载密度平均值为1230MJ／m^2，最大值6813．4MJ／m^2，最小值92MJ／m^2，标准偏差1240．5MJ／m^2。     

形态滤波和自相关降噪的Hilbert边际谱在轴承故障诊断中的应用

Hilbert边际谱是Hilbert-Huang变换在频域的一种表示形式,适合分析机械故障诊断中广泛存在的非平稳信号,但是噪声会影响Hilbert边际谱的分析精度。针对从装甲车辆机械系统采集的振动信号中噪声的特点,将形态滤波和自相关相结合,对振动信号进行降噪,提高了Hilbert边际谱对振动信号的分析精度,并在某型坦克变速箱主轴7216轴承滚动体点蚀故障诊断中得到了应用。     

箭（弹）级间螺栓法兰连接结构准静载失效实验与数值仿真研究

基于火箭(导弹)级间螺栓法兰连接结构,简化设计并制作了一组原理性实验件,设计准静载加载实验测试系统,进行了两次准静载失效实验,并利用ABAQUS软件建立对应的有限元模型。实验中设计了螺栓力响应信号采集传感器,获得了螺栓力响应数据、加载力与加载位移等多组关键数据。根据实验效果和实测数据,分析了连接结构在准静载荷载作用下的失效机理,并对比验证了有限元模型数值模拟效果和精度与实验吻合较好。研究结论可为箭(弹)级间连接结构承载能力和失效实验设计提供参考。     

The Demand for Military Expenditure in Europe: The Role of Fiscal Space in the Context of a Resurgent Russia

A variant of established work on the demand for military expenditure is developed based on a practical concept of fiscal space from the perspective of short-term government choices concerning public expenditures. A new indicator, referred to as fiscal capacity, is defined and used as a candidate explanatory variable in an empirical model of European defence spending over the 2007–2016 period. Fiscal capacity is found to outperform simpler measurements of economic conditions, notably GDP growth forecasts, in explaining changes in defence spending efforts as a share of GDP. Regarding security environment variables, the results suggest that Russia has recently come to be seen as a potential military threat by European nations, leading to defence spending increases, the more so the shorter the distance to stationed or deployed Russian forces, and particularly so by those European nations that have a land border with Russia. A prospective exercise is then carried out in order to assess the capacity of EU member states that are also members of NATO to reach NATO’s 2% goal for defence spending over a mid-term horizon.     

Excess procurement strategies by a dominant buyer under constrained supply

Supply chains are often characterized by the presence of a dominant buyer purchasing from a supplier with limited capacity. We study such a situation where a single supplier sells capacity to an established and more powerful buyer and also to a relatively less powerful buyer. The more powerful buyer enjoys the first right to book her capacity requirements at supplier's end, and then the common supplier fulfills the requirement of the less powerful buyer. We find that when the supplier's capacity is either too low (below the lower threshold) or too high (above the higher threshold), there is no excess procurement as compared to the case when supplier has infinite capacity. When the supplier's capacity is between these two thresholds, the more powerful buyer purchases an excess amount in comparison to the infinite capacity case.